Company Analysis
Fundamental analysis on sectors, stocks and corporate bonds
Part 2: BDCs Paid Members Public
Summary 1. Business Development Companies (“BDCs”) offer high dividend yields as they make floating rate, high yielding loans to small and mid-sized businesses. However, dividend yield is a flawed valuation measure when looking at the sector. Net Investment Income Yield as well as factors that impact book value are more
Part 1: Midstream Energy Paid Members Public
Summary 1. Comparing equity yields in midstream energy with fixed income can be challenging given its added risk and growth components. Metrics such as dividend yield and free cash flow yield do not provide a full picture and we walk through two approaches for analyzing yield. 2. The midstream sector
SPWH: A Post-COVID Deer in Headlights Paid Members Public
Going forward, we plan on occasional posts like this where we don't do a deep-dive, but provide high level thoughts on idiosyncratic situations we are watching. Summary 1. SPWH is facing a post-COVID hangover with weak sales trends and declining margins after opening too many stores. 2. We
An Update After 4Q23 Gold Miner Earnings Paid Members Public
Gold Moving Sideways So far to start the year, gold has bounced around in a fairly tight range ($2000 - $2050). We are actually somewhat encouraged by the price action. First, over the same time period, 10Y real yields have risen by around 30bp. This selloff in bonds should have
Spirit (Airlines) in the Sky Paid Members Public
Summary * We believe the Spirit/JetBlue merger is dead and leaves Spirit facing tough industry fundamentals along with a large $1.1b debt maturity in 2025. Capacity in the domestic air travel market is outpacing demand and rising operating costs are outpacing price increases. * Spirit (and airlines generally) are incredibly
The Case for Gold Miners in 2024 Paid Members Public
Summary * We think gold can outperform this year in various scenarios – for example, if the Fed pushes too aggressively for a soft landing through rapid cuts, or alternatively if employment rolls over quicker than many expect. We like playing the asset class through gold miners, and this report analyzes the
Front End Corporates Paid Members Public
Introduction Markets surged in the last two months of 2023, leaving investors with few attractive options to start 2024. Stocks are off to a bumpy start after the first few days of the year, but still just off all-time highs. Bonds, where we had been bullish, are also less compelling
Ford and GM: Cheap For a Reason Paid Members Public
Summary 1. Recent share price underperformance for Ford and GM is driven in part by a cost structure that is moving structurally higher after recently signing a new UAW labor contract. In addition, while each company is transitioning to higher electric vehicle (“EV”) production, fundamentals in this segment are softening,
