Recent Posts

The latest research content from TheSpreadSite.com and @TheSpreadThread1

Credit Check Members Public

Credit markets have rallied aggressively so far this year, along with most risk assets, continuing the bull market that begin in late 2022. In this week’s note we provide a brief update on corporate credit and a few thoughts looking forward. First, both investment grade and high yield credit

TheSpreadThread1
Market Insights

Part 1: Midstream Energy Members Public

Summary 1. Comparing equity yields in midstream energy with fixed income can be challenging given its added risk and growth components. Metrics such as dividend yield and free cash flow yield do not provide a full picture and we walk through two approaches for analyzing yield. 2. The midstream sector

TheSpreadSite
Company Analysis

Ahead of the Fed Members Public

Markets are two days away from a Fed meeting, which has the potential to rattle this ‘Goldilocks’ market. Taking a step back, over the last 4-5 months, stocks have moved higher in nearly a straight shot, and bonds have been mostly range-bound. A still healthy economy, optimism around a 1990s-like

TheSpreadThread1
Market Insights

SPWH: A Post-COVID Deer in Headlights Members Public

Going forward, we plan on occasional posts like this where we don't do a deep-dive, but provide high level thoughts on idiosyncratic situations we are watching. Summary 1. SPWH is facing a post-COVID hangover with weak sales trends and declining margins after opening too many stores. 2. We

TheSpreadSite
Company Analysis

A Two-Tiered Economy Part Two Members Public

Summary * This week, we once again explore the bifurcation in the economy, which we believe is large and set to grow. In short, parts of the economy are clearly doing well, even thriving, despite higher rates. Other areas have been struggling, such as companies with high leverage/ little FCF, consumers

TheSpreadThread1
Market Insights

An Update After 4Q23 Gold Miner Earnings Members Public

Gold Moving Sideways So far to start the year, gold has bounced around in a fairly tight range ($2000 - $2050). We are actually somewhat encouraged by the price action. First, over the same time period, 10Y real yields have risen by around 30bp. This selloff in bonds should have

TheSpreadSite
Company Analysis

Bank Stocks, Charts & Data: 4Q23 Members Public

The Banking Sector In Charts We are through 4Q23 bank earnings and have a few weeks until all companies file their 10Ks. Aside from a few data points, most information compiled is available through the Call Reports available on the FDIC's website or supplemental data issued with earnings

TheSpreadSite
Charts and Screens

A Few Thoughts After a Hot CPI Print Members Public

After rallying 22% in nearly a straight line, equity markets finally got a reason to selloff - today’s hot CPI release. A few quick takeaways: First, without getting into all the details, our view is that any one report can be noisy, especially in January, which tends to have

TheSpreadThread1
Market Insights